According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical storm in the Caribbean shows the best setting for Wednesday afternoon and could soon be classified as a tropical storm pony.
“High-resolution visible satellite images suggest the system may be trying to close a center south of the ABC Islands, but surface observations are not yet certain,” wrote Richard Bass, a senior NHC hurricane expert. “Radar images from Curaao have not yet shown a definite center. The system could turn into a tropical cyclone at any moment.
A national maritime and atmospheric hurricane Hunter aircraft inspected the system Wednesday afternoon, but it was not regulated enough to indicate it was a tropical storm. Forecasts call for a slight strengthening of the storm, but until this weekend there is no powerful intensity until it approaches the southwestern Caribbean, where the system is likely to become the first hurricane of the season.
The National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. Wednesday forecast says heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds are expected over the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela and northern Colombia until Thursday morning.
The system is located approximately 65 miles east-southeast of the northern tip of Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula, with winds moving westward at a maximum speed of 40 mph to 21 mph, up to 11 pm. Tropical storm warning issued for Curacao and Aruba.
With the system unorganized, hurricane experts suspect it could change in the next 12 hours.
“One of the reasons we’ve been unable to close a cycle so far is the very fast pace,” said NHC’s Eric Blake. But the models show that the disturbance stabilizes in the evening. After that, the system should not be intensified for two days. By Friday, it could strengthen again, Blake said.
There is a tropical storm warning in Trinidad and Tobago; Grenada and its allies and parts of the Colombian coast. As it continues west, the system is expected to be near or above Nicaragua on Friday night.
The system extends tropical-storm-force winds 70 miles outside the center of the system. As the name implies, it is a tropical storm pony. The NHC offers a 90% chance of formation over the next five days.
“On the forecast route, the system will pass near Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula early Thursday and then into the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursdays and Fridays,” the NHC said.
Meteorologists are keeping an eye on two other hurdles with the potential to become a tropical system.
Overnight rain and thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Further development is possible, but the system is currently in a state of disarray. As it slowly moves westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico and Texas, the NHC offers a 40% chance of developing into a tropical system in the next two to five days. It is expected to move inland to Texas on Thursday.
An Air Force Reserve hurricane Hunter aircraft was sent for investigation, showing that the system was poorly organized.
“Some slow growth is still possible and a short-term tropical depression will become stable near the coast before it turns northwest and moves inland over Texas on Thursday. Regardless of the growth, heavy rain is likely in some parts of the Texas coast over the next few days,” the NHC said.
Also, a tropical wave over the Central Tropical Atlantic creates irregular rainfall and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to interact with and form another tropical wave later this week. The NHC wave was expected to turn into a 10% depression over the next two days and 30% over the next five days.
If any of these systems develop, it will be the second system of the season after tropical storm Alex, which rained nearly a foot in some parts of Florida earlier this month.
After Pony, the next two names are Colin and Daniel.
The tropical system can be termed as tropical depression without developing into a tropical-storm state. This system will not be named until it blows at 39 mph and will not be named as a hurricane until it blows at 74 mph.
2022 Season June 1-Nov. Following the 30 storms named 21 of 2020 and 2021 are predicted to be 30 years longer than another nature for storms.